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feel like I lost a close family membe

Notapor lw789 » Mié Ene 03, 2018 6:32 am

Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at and followed on Twitter at For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Morgan Cox Jersey .com) - Lloyd Sam struck in stoppage time on Wednesday as Red Bull New York hung on for a crucial 1-0 win over Atlantic Cup rivals D. Bronson Kaufusi Jersey . Jeff Carter had two goals and an assist as the Kings stretched their streak to seven wins in a row with a 4-2 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday. http://www.ravensjerseyscheapauthentic. ... ck-jersey/. "I dont know where we would be without him," McClendon said. "Hes done a tremendous job for us and (Wednesday) was no different." Logan Morrison drove in two runs in Seattles big sixth inning, Young pitched seven strong innings and the Mariners beat the Houston Astros 5-2 to complete a three-game sweep. Tony Jefferson Jersey . Watch the announcement live on at 12:30pm et/9:30am pt. This years honourees will be recognized at the 2014 Hockey Canada Foundation Celebrity Classic, scheduled for June 23-24 in Vancouver. Jeremy Maclin Jersey . His chance at winning a Stanley Cup in Philadelphia is over. Same with Jeff Carter. And Brian Boucher. Throw in Ville Leino and Dan Carcillo.EAST LANSING, Mich. -- With some swagger and a sweet stroke, Nik Stauskas lifted Michigan to a rare win at Michigan State. Stauskas made a tiebreaking 3-pointer with 3:12 left and finished with 19 points to lead the 21st-ranked Wolverines to an 80-75 win over the third-ranked Spartans on Saturday night to remain the only Big Ten team without a conference loss. The sophomore shooting guard had four assists and unofficially had another one, separating coach John Beilein from a face-to-face argument with an official with 4:01 remaining. "He was about to get a technical," Stauskas said. Stauskas helped the usually mild-mannered Beilein from saying or doing something that might cost his team points just before the Wolverines (15-4, 7-0 Big Ten) went on a 10-0 run late in the game to take control. "Thats a great step in his leadership," Beilein said with a grin. The Wolverines won for just the second time in 15 games at the Breslin Center. Michigan is the first team since at least the 1996-97 season to win three straight games against top-10 teams in the regular season, according to STATS. The Wolverines, who had never pulled off that feat in school history, were coming off a win against No. 10 Iowa at home after beating then-No. 3 Wisconsin on the road. "This is a great win for us because of who we were just able to beat," Beilein said. "Its one of the classiest, best programs in the country." Freshman Derrick Walton Jr. scored a season-high 19 and Caris LeVert scored 17 for the Wolverines, who have won nine straight without standout centre Mitch McGary. The Spartans (18-2, 7-1) had won 11 straight since losing to North Carolina at home, but the streak was snapped by their rival soon after another injury-related setback. "The better team won," coach Tom Izzo ackknowledged.dddddddddddd Adreian Payne missed a fifth straight game with a sprained right foot and Branden Dawson was out for the first time since the junior forward said he broke his right hand hitting a table. Michigan, though, didnt have any sympathy. The Wolverines, who lost Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. early to the NBA, have been playing without McGary because he needed back surgery since losing to No. 1 Arizona in a closely contested game. Michigan States Gary Harris scored a career-high 27 points and didnt get much help offensively from his team that was without two of its best players. Freshman Alvin Ellis scored a season-high 12 points, surpassing his scoring total from his first seven Big Ten games. Keith Appling was held to 10 points on 3 of 11 shooting, playing with a wrist injury and bad back. "He just cant shoot right now with that wrist," Izzo said. Michigan turned 11 offensive rebounds into 15 second-chance points as it outrebounded the Spartans 34-30. The Wolverines have won five of seven in the series after losing 18 of 21, and Appling took the latest loss hard because he will not play them again at home. "I feel like I lost a close family member," he said softly. "Thats how bad it hurts." Michigan got off to a great start with Stauskas making jumpers, pumping his fist and shouting as he ran back to play defence. The Wolverines started 4 of 4 from the field and led 10-2 before losing the lead midway through the first half as Michigan States defensive intensity picked up and its crowd began to roar. Michigan made shots when it needed them most in the second half, scoring 50 points after halftime, including 5 of 8 on 3-pointers and 23 of 27 at the line. "Youre not going to beat too many teams when they shoot that way," Harris said. Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys ' ' '
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